* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSLYN EP192022 10/21/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 64 66 67 62 56 50 41 37 34 34 35 34 33 31 30 V (KT) LAND 60 63 64 66 67 62 47 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 64 65 65 59 46 33 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 9 9 7 10 17 17 39 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -8 -7 -3 -4 -2 -5 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 222 202 213 207 200 209 236 245 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.4 28.9 28.5 27.6 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 154 151 147 154 151 142 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.7 -53.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 5 6 5 5 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 62 61 60 57 55 56 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 13 14 7 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 7 -1 -2 0 17 13 28 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 58 75 46 61 55 53 41 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 0 -3 5 23 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 281 272 260 217 195 80 -33 -364 -434 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.8 18.4 20.1 22.6 25.4 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.8 105.3 105.8 106.2 106.5 106.4 105.4 103.7 101.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 11 15 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 25 22 18 14 18 15 8 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -10. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. -22. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 1. -4. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 6. 7. 2. -4. -10. -19. -23. -26. -26. -25. -26. -27. -29. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.2 104.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192022 ROSLYN 10/21/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.48 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.63 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 6.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 207.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 -4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.8% 34.7% 29.4% 24.2% 15.3% 19.6% 14.1% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 12.1% 7.4% 4.3% 5.0% 1.9% 1.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.0% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.9% 16.2% 12.4% 9.5% 6.8% 7.2% 5.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 10.0% 39.0% 15.0% 6.0% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192022 ROSLYN 10/21/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##