* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSLYN EP192022 10/21/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 67 73 77 84 78 64 52 46 42 40 41 43 44 43 43 V (KT) LAND 55 61 67 73 77 84 78 64 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 62 67 72 76 79 74 66 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 6 8 10 10 9 17 15 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -9 -8 -7 -1 -1 -2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 284 280 243 205 205 206 201 232 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.1 29.7 29.5 29.0 29.3 28.9 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 164 161 159 154 157 154 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 7 7 5 6 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 66 64 63 62 58 55 56 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 14 13 15 10 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -2 -2 8 3 6 27 24 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 44 42 61 47 31 21 45 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -2 0 0 -2 0 -4 11 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 234 229 230 215 202 120 57 7 -246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.3 16.5 17.0 17.5 18.9 20.6 22.5 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.5 104.0 104.4 104.9 105.4 106.0 106.2 105.8 104.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 7 7 8 9 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 37 37 36 32 17 23 20 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 48.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. 16. 18. 19. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. -2. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 7. 2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 18. 22. 29. 23. 9. -3. -9. -13. -15. -14. -12. -11. -11. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.0 103.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192022 ROSLYN 10/21/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.62 10.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 10.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 6.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.63 9.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 10.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 6.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 173.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 -8.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.32 2.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 4.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 45% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 32.7% 58.3% 52.5% 43.7% 31.8% 45.0% 17.2% 10.9% Logistic: 25.7% 40.7% 27.0% 21.1% 25.3% 17.4% 10.9% 1.8% Bayesian: 13.0% 27.9% 13.3% 6.2% 15.2% 3.1% 0.7% 0.0% Consensus: 23.8% 42.3% 30.9% 23.7% 24.1% 21.8% 9.6% 4.2% DTOPS: 21.0% 42.0% 20.0% 12.0% 7.0% 38.0% 12.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192022 ROSLYN 10/21/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##