* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSLYN EP192022 10/21/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 57 61 66 66 57 52 44 34 32 33 33 33 31 30 V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 57 61 66 66 57 45 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 53 56 59 62 60 57 48 34 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 5 6 9 11 9 13 12 23 41 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -6 -9 -8 -3 -2 -3 5 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 262 271 284 231 216 224 189 213 224 252 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.4 30.3 29.9 29.6 29.0 28.8 29.3 28.5 27.6 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 167 166 162 159 153 152 157 149 139 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.8 -53.2 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 7 4 7 3 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 68 66 64 64 62 60 57 60 43 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 15 14 14 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -8 -6 -3 9 -1 27 27 18 21 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 64 58 37 32 65 36 49 71 31 5 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -2 0 -2 0 -2 -5 10 14 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 272 262 261 258 261 209 136 92 -30 -201 -342 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.8 19.2 20.9 22.7 24.3 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.3 103.7 104.1 104.7 105.2 106.1 106.4 106.4 105.5 104.8 104.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 6 6 7 6 8 9 9 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 36 36 34 31 22 15 26 15 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 18. 19. 21. 23. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -5. -14. -15. -15. -16. -17. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 16. 21. 21. 12. 7. -1. -11. -13. -12. -12. -12. -14. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.6 103.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192022 ROSLYN 10/21/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.63 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.31 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.19 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.5% 28.5% 25.1% 23.2% 14.0% 27.5% 22.3% 13.0% Logistic: 14.9% 36.1% 23.2% 17.3% 18.7% 16.1% 9.5% 3.8% Bayesian: 2.1% 17.7% 6.0% 1.8% 3.9% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2% Consensus: 10.2% 27.4% 18.1% 14.1% 12.2% 15.6% 10.9% 5.7% DTOPS: 8.0% 44.0% 30.0% 17.0% 11.0% 26.0% 22.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192022 ROSLYN 10/21/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##