* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192022 10/20/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 46 50 58 63 59 49 45 41 42 44 46 48 49 49 V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 46 50 58 63 59 49 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 42 43 46 49 48 45 37 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 3 7 6 8 8 4 14 12 11 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -2 -7 -7 -4 -3 -5 -1 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 275 253 266 245 194 181 161 202 225 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.0 29.4 28.9 29.3 28.4 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 163 165 166 163 157 153 158 149 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.7 -53.1 -53.9 -53.3 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 5 6 5 5 7 5 7 4 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 71 70 69 68 64 60 58 53 50 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 12 12 13 13 14 13 9 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -17 0 -1 -2 10 9 26 28 13 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 61 62 47 51 33 63 51 51 56 21 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -3 -2 -3 -2 -1 -3 -2 -1 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 254 269 292 282 273 260 241 154 38 -68 -305 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.5 15.7 16.3 17.2 18.5 20.2 22.2 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.7 102.3 102.8 103.2 103.7 104.6 105.6 106.1 106.0 105.0 103.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 8 9 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 34 35 36 35 34 29 18 21 15 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 30. 32. 35. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 4. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. -1. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 15. 23. 28. 24. 14. 10. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.1 101.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192022 NINETEEN 10/20/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.75 6.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 73.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.30 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 42% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 38% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.1% 38.0% 26.0% 23.0% 14.2% 29.6% 42.2% 38.0% Logistic: 14.4% 45.8% 27.8% 20.3% 7.6% 25.5% 35.2% 14.1% Bayesian: 2.5% 21.8% 6.3% 1.7% 0.6% 4.7% 2.6% 0.6% Consensus: 10.0% 35.2% 20.0% 15.0% 7.5% 19.9% 26.6% 17.5% DTOPS: 2.0% 18.0% 8.0% 5.0% 4.0% 9.0% 19.0% 14.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192022 NINETEEN 10/20/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##