* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192022 10/20/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 45 52 62 71 74 75 61 51 46 40 41 41 39 39 V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 45 52 62 71 74 75 61 51 38 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 41 47 52 57 60 57 54 41 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 2 4 4 2 5 7 4 12 16 17 32 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 1 6 -5 -6 -6 -2 -4 0 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 188 181 231 208 298 256 170 116 157 189 214 246 254 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.3 29.0 28.9 29.3 29.4 28.1 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 161 160 160 160 155 153 152 157 158 144 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 -53.6 -53.2 -53.7 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 6 6 4 7 5 7 4 6 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 78 75 72 71 69 67 64 61 58 56 38 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 11 12 13 14 17 16 18 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -22 -22 -13 -8 -3 14 10 25 42 39 32 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 54 94 97 98 49 70 38 55 100 88 10 -49 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 -4 -2 0 -2 -3 -5 3 12 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 223 244 266 286 292 276 267 251 138 49 23 -60 -179 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 35 36 36 34 32 30 27 19 20 25 13 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 59.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 27. 30. 33. 35. 37. 39. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. -5. -5. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 13. 3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 16. 9. 2. -2. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 22. 32. 41. 44. 45. 31. 21. 16. 10. 11. 11. 9. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.1 101.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192022 NINETEEN 10/20/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 9.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.57 6.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.93 9.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -7.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.30 1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 3.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 43% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 49% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 44% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.1% 48.4% 35.2% 24.8% 0.0% 43.2% 48.7% 44.2% Logistic: 17.7% 61.7% 45.6% 37.1% 6.3% 64.0% 60.9% 31.1% Bayesian: 1.8% 23.1% 12.6% 4.6% 0.2% 3.1% 2.3% 3.0% Consensus: 10.9% 44.4% 31.1% 22.2% 2.2% 36.7% 37.3% 26.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 15.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 10.0% 19.0% 48.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192022 NINETEEN 10/20/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##