* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAINE EP172022 10/05/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 24 22 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 26 24 22 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 26 23 20 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 24 25 29 29 30 33 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 1 2 6 6 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 290 299 310 318 314 304 290 296 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.8 27.1 27.5 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 129 128 128 133 137 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 43 43 41 40 34 29 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 6 7 11 9 17 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 -11 -32 -11 -2 -35 -23 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 5 4 4 1 2 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 679 685 691 694 698 748 800 850 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.6 18.7 18.9 19.0 19.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.3 114.5 114.7 114.9 115.0 115.8 116.9 117.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 3 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 3 3 3 3 9 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 769 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. 24. 24. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -11. -18. -24. -29. -31. -31. -31. -32. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -8. -10. -15. -21. -28. -32. -36. -39. -41. -41. -42. -42. -44. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.3 114.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172022 PAINE 10/05/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.54 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 87.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172022 PAINE 10/05/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##