* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAINE EP172022 10/05/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 30 28 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 28 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 32 30 27 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 22 25 28 31 32 34 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 1 3 8 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 283 293 299 309 316 305 306 294 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.9 27.5 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 131 129 127 126 130 137 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 42 41 41 40 36 32 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 2 8 7 10 7 19 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 1 -12 -24 -4 -13 -24 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 3 5 4 4 5 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 681 678 676 675 676 717 767 828 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.4 18.6 18.8 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.2 114.4 114.6 114.7 114.9 115.5 116.5 117.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 2 3 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 4 3 2 2 6 13 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 765 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 19. 20. 20. 20. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -12. -19. -25. -29. -31. -32. -33. -34. -37. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -8. -14. -20. -29. -35. -40. -43. -46. -46. -48. -48. -51. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.2 114.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172022 PAINE 10/05/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.50 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.14 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 268.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.01 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 91.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172022 PAINE 10/05/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##