* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAINE EP172022 10/04/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 38 36 31 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 38 36 31 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 39 37 32 27 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 11 16 19 21 27 31 32 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 3 4 5 4 6 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 264 278 283 286 303 298 298 285 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.9 27.4 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 137 133 131 127 130 136 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 44 42 43 42 40 34 29 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 6 5 7 10 18 11 16 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 -15 -1 -2 -14 -21 -17 -30 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 3 4 2 4 4 6 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 677 660 646 646 647 652 678 726 799 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.3 19.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.2 113.5 113.8 114.0 114.2 114.6 115.2 116.1 117.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 3 2 2 3 4 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 7 6 5 4 2 6 16 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -14. -18. -21. -23. -24. -24. -25. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -2. -4. -9. -16. -21. -26. -29. -30. -31. -31. -31. -31. -33. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.6 113.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172022 PAINE 10/04/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.52 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 307.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 91.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 0.5% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172022 PAINE 10/04/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##