* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAINE EP172022 10/04/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 30 28 25 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 30 28 25 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 31 30 26 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 10 11 17 20 24 30 33 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 4 3 4 3 7 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 255 269 267 275 280 294 308 295 286 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.9 27.2 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 140 135 132 128 129 133 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 43 42 41 40 38 33 30 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 4 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -1 7 7 7 18 20 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -13 -5 -10 -2 0 -30 -22 -38 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 5 2 4 1 3 2 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 692 665 643 628 617 622 648 690 709 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.8 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.4 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.9 113.2 113.6 113.8 114.0 114.4 115.0 115.6 116.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 8 7 5 4 2 8 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -5. -12. -17. -20. -21. -22. -22. -23. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -15. -19. -24. -27. -28. -29. -29. -29. -28. -30. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.3 112.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172022 PAINE 10/04/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.14 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 285.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 76.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 0.6% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172022 PAINE 10/04/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##