* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAINE EP172022 10/04/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 35 33 32 29 25 21 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 35 33 32 29 25 21 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 38 39 39 38 34 30 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 3 4 10 12 18 23 28 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 2 0 2 4 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 124 174 263 271 263 274 290 305 291 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.4 27.0 26.9 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 143 142 141 135 130 129 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 47 45 44 45 38 35 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -2 -9 -4 4 15 21 25 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 7 -13 2 3 -10 -33 -23 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 5 4 4 1 1 3 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 766 731 699 665 633 607 623 653 702 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.6 18.0 18.6 18.9 19.0 19.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.1 112.4 112.6 112.8 113.1 113.6 114.2 114.7 115.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 7 8 7 7 5 4 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. 22. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -19. -20. -20. -20. -19. -17. -15. -14. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.3 112.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172022 PAINE 10/04/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.61 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.68 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.22 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 264.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.61 -2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.73 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 18.0% 14.2% 13.0% 0.0% 13.2% 10.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 6.2% 5.0% 4.4% 0.0% 4.4% 3.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172022 PAINE 10/04/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##