* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAINE EP172022 10/03/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 35 34 32 29 27 23 23 23 24 25 26 29 30 31 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 35 34 32 29 27 23 23 23 24 25 26 29 30 31 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 39 40 39 37 34 29 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 3 5 9 15 18 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 0 0 0 2 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 93 126 170 238 262 267 286 312 304 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 27.7 27.3 27.0 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 142 143 143 138 134 130 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 48 47 45 44 41 37 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -9 -4 -6 3 8 12 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 25 5 -8 8 -5 -12 -12 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 4 2 4 2 2 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 822 779 737 708 682 667 664 714 775 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 7 7 8 8 6 4 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. 24. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -8. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -6. -5. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.7 111.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172022 PAINE 10/03/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.61 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.73 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.28 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 252.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 -2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 19.5% 15.2% 13.8% 0.0% 14.5% 11.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 6.8% 5.5% 4.7% 0.0% 4.9% 3.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172022 PAINE 10/03/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##