* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTON EP152022 09/28/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 34 38 41 41 39 37 33 32 31 31 29 29 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 34 38 41 41 39 37 33 32 31 31 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 31 31 30 28 25 22 19 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 7 5 4 4 9 14 15 22 22 25 18 19 18 20 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -6 -5 -2 0 -5 -5 -4 -1 -4 -6 -2 0 -1 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 88 92 108 118 121 142 164 167 178 185 192 205 218 210 212 209 242 SST (C) 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.2 27.4 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 140 143 145 145 146 138 128 126 126 125 127 127 129 130 133 136 135 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 42 44 46 50 50 51 50 52 49 46 44 43 41 40 38 38 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR 49 42 40 35 31 23 15 12 11 6 4 -8 -16 -21 -12 -10 -7 200 MB DIV -10 -39 -56 -71 -60 -25 -17 -13 -9 -29 -19 -6 3 11 10 13 25 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 -4 -6 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 1754 1816 1896 1986 2062 2191 2277 2328 2319 2267 2189 2100 1993 1856 1725 1580 1397 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.1 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.2 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.4 125.3 126.3 127.4 128.4 130.5 132.0 132.9 133.4 133.9 134.6 135.4 136.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 9 7 3 2 3 4 4 5 6 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 5 7 8 8 8 4 1 1 1 1 2 4 2 2 3 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 25. 27. 28. 28. 28. 28. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 16. 14. 12. 8. 7. 6. 6. 4. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.9 124.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152022 NEWTON 09/28/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -47.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.66 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 19.1% 11.8% 6.1% 4.2% 9.4% 6.4% 6.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 6.4% 3.9% 2.0% 1.4% 3.1% 2.1% 2.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152022 NEWTON 09/28/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##