* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTON EP152022 09/28/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 29 34 37 40 41 40 37 34 31 29 28 26 25 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 29 34 37 40 41 40 37 34 31 29 28 26 25 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 30 31 32 32 30 27 24 20 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 8 11 9 4 5 9 14 17 22 20 23 25 27 27 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -6 -7 -3 -1 -4 -4 -4 -1 0 2 0 1 3 0 SHEAR DIR 105 80 84 95 106 116 124 155 165 181 194 204 206 207 216 216 213 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.4 27.6 26.4 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 146 149 150 149 140 127 128 127 126 125 126 126 124 124 125 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -55.1 -54.9 -54.9 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 41 44 45 46 48 52 53 52 53 50 47 44 42 38 37 34 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 5 6 4 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 60 51 45 43 34 21 15 14 14 11 7 -8 -17 -24 -31 -23 200 MB DIV 44 21 -8 -41 -61 -59 -20 -6 -4 -7 -17 -1 9 -5 4 -12 8 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 -1 0 -4 -6 -4 LAND (KM) 1652 1718 1793 1862 1942 2117 2245 2348 2270 2178 2087 1995 1897 1791 1681 1553 1399 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.7 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.7 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.9 123.7 124.6 125.5 126.5 128.7 130.9 132.7 133.9 134.7 135.5 136.3 137.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 10 11 10 8 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 8 10 9 9 5 0 1 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 28. 29. 29. 29. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 12. 15. 16. 15. 12. 9. 7. 4. 3. 1. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 122.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152022 NEWTON 09/28/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.12 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.65 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 173.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 -3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.96 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.6% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 3.6% 2.0% 1.0% 0.6% 3.8% 1.9% 4.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 5.4% 4.8% 0.3% 0.2% 5.1% 0.6% 1.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152022 NEWTON 09/28/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##