* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTON EP152022 09/28/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 36 40 44 47 47 46 45 44 42 41 40 41 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 36 40 44 47 47 46 45 44 42 41 40 41 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 33 34 35 34 33 30 27 24 21 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 8 9 12 7 6 7 11 12 16 15 19 21 20 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -4 -5 -6 -5 -1 -3 -4 -2 -2 0 0 -3 -2 2 2 SHEAR DIR 127 108 82 83 88 97 107 145 154 167 174 188 187 206 227 237 214 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.2 27.4 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 144 145 147 149 146 138 127 125 126 128 129 128 128 128 126 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -54.4 -54.3 -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 41 42 45 45 47 53 55 53 53 54 51 49 44 45 40 39 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 75 66 53 46 41 25 17 14 15 11 11 -4 -7 -25 -24 -28 200 MB DIV 56 46 24 -1 -32 -73 -49 -5 -5 -12 -15 -3 -4 -16 5 -10 5 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 1559 1617 1690 1756 1824 1982 2144 2252 2340 2310 2227 2138 2032 1927 1806 1679 1534 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 13.8 13.6 13.5 13.5 13.6 13.8 14.2 14.6 14.8 14.8 14.7 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.8 122.4 123.2 124.0 124.9 127.0 129.2 131.1 132.6 133.6 134.4 135.3 136.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 8 9 11 10 9 6 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 8 8 8 9 8 4 0 1 1 3 3 2 1 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 28. 30. 30. 30. 31. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 22. 21. 20. 19. 17. 16. 15. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 121.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152022 NEWTON 09/28/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.67 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 173.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 -3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.80 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.6% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 5.9% 4.4% 2.2% 1.2% 5.7% 11.2% 20.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 7.2% 6.1% 0.7% 0.4% 5.7% 3.7% 6.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152022 NEWTON 09/28/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##