* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTON EP152022 09/27/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 35 43 46 50 51 51 49 47 46 45 44 43 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 35 43 46 50 51 51 49 47 46 45 44 43 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 34 37 39 39 39 37 34 30 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 7 9 11 11 6 6 8 10 13 19 19 18 17 19 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -4 -5 -5 -8 -5 -3 -5 -4 -5 -2 -3 0 -1 2 2 SHEAR DIR 164 116 102 88 86 99 96 110 145 149 162 180 195 211 220 234 226 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.5 28.5 27.7 26.7 26.3 26.6 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 144 143 145 149 150 141 130 125 127 129 129 128 128 125 122 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 43 42 43 46 46 50 54 54 54 55 53 51 45 46 41 37 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 76 74 63 52 44 38 22 17 13 15 13 3 -4 -18 -30 -37 200 MB DIV 28 53 73 28 -20 -61 -59 1 1 -15 -18 1 7 -3 -16 0 0 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 1 0 0 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 1540 1613 1679 1752 1819 1963 2118 2256 2346 2320 2207 2111 1988 1866 1743 1631 1529 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 13.7 13.4 13.2 13.1 13.0 13.2 13.5 14.1 14.5 14.8 14.9 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.5 122.2 122.8 123.6 124.4 126.2 128.3 130.4 132.2 133.6 134.6 135.5 136.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 9 11 10 8 6 5 4 6 6 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 8 7 7 9 9 5 1 0 2 4 2 1 1 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 29. 30. 30. 31. 31. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 18. 21. 25. 26. 26. 24. 22. 21. 20. 19. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 121.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152022 NEWTON 09/27/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.70 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 176.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 -3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.84 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.19 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.3% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 9.5% 0.0% Logistic: 7.6% 18.3% 16.1% 9.0% 6.2% 11.0% 10.5% 29.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 11.0% 10.0% 3.0% 2.1% 7.3% 6.7% 9.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152022 NEWTON 09/27/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##