* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTON EP152022 09/27/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 27 32 38 43 48 49 49 47 45 43 42 41 39 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 27 32 38 43 48 49 49 47 45 43 42 41 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 28 30 32 35 38 40 39 37 34 30 26 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 4 6 5 7 12 8 6 3 8 13 16 19 23 19 25 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -3 -4 -6 -6 -4 -4 -6 -4 -3 -1 -2 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 186 171 140 136 94 90 88 81 131 149 166 176 186 197 219 217 234 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.4 28.4 28.1 27.3 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.4 26.5 26.2 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 145 145 145 148 149 145 137 126 126 127 128 125 127 124 120 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 45 42 42 42 45 47 52 54 55 54 54 50 48 44 43 37 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR 80 74 74 72 66 45 41 28 19 10 13 9 3 -11 -16 -34 -47 200 MB DIV -4 25 45 49 27 -38 -59 -16 -1 8 -16 1 1 -12 -3 1 -4 700-850 TADV 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1441 1506 1580 1654 1729 1878 2028 2176 2284 2364 2286 2194 2095 1995 1892 1797 1735 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.3 14.0 13.7 13.4 13.2 13.2 13.5 14.0 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.8 121.4 122.1 122.8 123.5 125.3 127.2 129.3 131.3 132.8 133.8 134.6 135.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 9 7 5 4 5 5 6 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 21 13 9 8 7 9 8 8 4 0 1 2 3 1 1 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 24. 27. 29. 31. 31. 31. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 2. 7. 13. 18. 23. 24. 24. 22. 20. 18. 17. 16. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.6 120.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152022 NEWTON 09/27/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 3.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.72 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.17 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 182.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 -2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.68 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.24 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.1% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 8.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 10.2% 8.6% 4.2% 2.3% 7.3% 3.8% 16.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 8.5% 5.6% 1.4% 0.8% 5.7% 3.9% 5.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152022 NEWTON 09/27/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##