* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTON EP152022 09/25/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 22 23 26 29 33 35 36 37 38 40 42 45 48 49 V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 22 23 26 29 33 35 36 37 38 40 42 45 48 49 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 20 20 19 20 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 14 15 14 12 13 3 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 2 -3 -6 -5 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 199 183 180 171 168 171 109 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.2 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 145 147 150 152 154 146 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 52 50 50 47 49 49 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 23 41 48 58 68 67 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 -8 -4 -13 -18 -22 -2 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 3 0 3 5 3 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 831 920 1010 1104 1199 1414 1626 1792 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.1 17.5 16.9 16.3 14.9 13.7 12.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.8 117.5 118.1 118.7 119.4 120.8 122.4 123.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 10 14 26 31 15 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 33. 35. 37. 39. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 4. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. 17. 20. 23. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.6 116.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152022 NEWTON 09/25/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.32 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 179.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 -2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.67 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.5% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.1% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152022 NEWTON 09/25/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##