* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTON EP152022 09/25/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 27 27 26 27 27 26 26 25 26 28 30 34 37 39 V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 27 27 26 27 27 26 26 25 26 28 30 34 37 39 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 24 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 15 13 16 16 15 17 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 2 1 -5 -5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 206 207 199 189 182 165 170 175 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.4 28.8 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 143 144 144 144 148 152 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 54 52 51 49 47 47 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 6 15 23 37 57 66 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 5 1 2 -5 -18 -11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 6 8 5 4 7 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 665 718 773 856 941 1129 1319 1510 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.3 19.1 18.7 18.2 17.1 16.0 14.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.3 116.0 116.6 117.3 118.0 119.4 120.8 122.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 20 14 10 9 21 17 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 29. 31. 32. 34. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -12. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. 4. 7. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.5 115.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152022 NEWTON 09/25/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 3.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.22 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.66 -2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 9.8% 9.3% 7.8% 0.0% 8.8% 8.6% 9.7% Logistic: 0.6% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 3.6% 3.3% 2.7% 0.0% 3.3% 2.9% 3.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152022 NEWTON 09/25/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##