* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTON EP152022 09/25/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 26 26 26 26 27 27 26 26 26 28 30 33 35 37 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 26 26 26 26 27 27 26 26 26 28 30 33 35 37 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 24 23 21 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 16 16 13 16 13 16 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 3 3 3 -1 -7 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 201 198 207 205 195 179 167 178 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 139 142 144 144 147 150 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 55 55 52 52 48 46 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 7 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 0 4 14 24 44 64 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 -13 9 13 16 -13 -30 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 7 9 6 5 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 592 660 715 784 855 1032 1206 1370 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.4 19.3 19.0 18.6 17.6 16.6 15.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.4 115.2 115.9 116.6 117.2 118.6 119.9 120.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 22 21 14 11 14 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. 32. 33. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -0. 3. 5. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.5 114.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152022 NEWTON 09/25/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.64 3.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.21 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 199.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 -2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.86 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 11.3% 9.3% 7.3% 0.0% 8.8% 8.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 3.9% 3.1% 2.4% 0.0% 3.0% 2.9% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152022 NEWTON 09/25/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##