* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTON EP152022 09/24/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 26 26 26 25 26 26 25 25 25 27 29 33 35 37 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 26 26 26 25 26 26 25 25 25 27 29 33 35 37 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 24 23 22 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 17 15 14 14 17 12 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 4 4 0 -5 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 210 208 205 205 192 184 168 178 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.9 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.5 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 131 138 141 143 145 149 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 55 55 51 48 45 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 0 2 7 19 36 53 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -17 -17 -14 2 18 4 -23 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 2 2 8 9 3 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 554 607 663 729 786 943 1131 1322 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.1 18.9 18.1 17.0 15.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.7 114.4 115.1 115.8 116.5 117.9 119.3 120.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 9 20 19 14 10 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -1. 3. 5. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.3 113.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152022 NEWTON 09/24/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 3.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.14 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.26 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 199.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 -2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 10.7% 9.2% 7.2% 0.0% 8.7% 9.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 3.7% 3.1% 2.4% 0.0% 3.0% 3.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152022 NEWTON 09/24/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##