* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTON EP152022 09/24/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 30 30 30 30 31 31 32 32 33 35 37 40 43 45 V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 30 30 30 30 31 31 32 32 33 35 37 40 43 45 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 31 30 29 27 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 14 15 15 13 16 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 1 4 2 -2 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 199 206 201 203 206 181 179 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.5 26.9 27.4 27.8 28.1 28.5 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 127 132 137 141 144 149 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 54 54 54 53 50 47 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -1 -1 3 11 28 43 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -16 -16 -17 -10 2 13 -5 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 4 1 2 8 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 522 560 606 673 739 858 1037 1249 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.1 19.0 18.5 17.4 16.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.8 113.6 114.3 115.1 115.8 117.1 118.4 119.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 1 7 17 18 12 18 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 5. 8. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.0 112.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152022 NEWTON 09/24/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.52 1.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.11 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.33 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 229.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 -1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 9.0% 5.3% 3.0% 0.0% 7.7% 8.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 3.2% 1.9% 1.1% 0.0% 2.7% 2.7% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152022 NEWTON 09/24/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##