* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTON EP152022 09/24/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 31 31 30 28 26 25 25 25 26 27 30 34 37 40 V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 31 31 30 28 26 25 25 25 26 27 30 34 37 40 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 31 30 28 26 25 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 11 12 15 15 15 16 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 -1 0 1 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 196 193 200 192 186 192 193 181 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.5 27.9 27.9 27.6 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 135 138 142 142 139 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 56 55 56 51 48 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -3 -3 -2 2 15 31 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 -13 -20 -9 -16 26 -1 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 4 1 3 9 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 505 523 554 611 671 786 934 1092 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.1 19.3 19.3 19.3 18.9 18.2 17.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.1 112.9 113.7 114.5 115.2 116.5 117.9 119.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 4 6 16 25 13 7 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. 25. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -11. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -5. -1. 2. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.8 112.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152022 NEWTON 09/24/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.56 3.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.10 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.40 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 209.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 -2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 9.8% 9.6% 8.0% 5.1% 9.7% 9.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.5% 3.3% 2.7% 1.7% 3.4% 3.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152022 NEWTON 09/24/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##