* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTON EP152022 09/24/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 36 36 36 34 32 32 32 33 34 35 37 41 43 46 V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 36 36 36 34 32 32 32 33 34 35 37 41 43 46 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 35 34 33 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 7 9 10 14 15 17 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 0 -2 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 188 185 182 184 181 182 181 191 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.7 28.0 27.7 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 136 136 136 140 143 140 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 59 57 56 54 54 49 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 1 -2 -1 -6 4 26 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 -17 -13 -23 -12 16 18 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 2 3 2 9 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 513 519 540 581 630 754 900 1039 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.2 19.3 19.0 18.3 17.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.5 112.3 113.1 113.9 114.7 116.1 117.5 118.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 4 4 8 19 18 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. 20. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. 1. 3. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.5 111.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152022 NEWTON 09/24/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.51 3.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.10 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.57 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 228.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 -2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.76 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 12.4% 11.5% 10.0% 6.0% 10.2% 9.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 2.3% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.9% 4.3% 3.6% 2.1% 3.7% 3.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152022 NEWTON 09/24/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##