* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTON EP152022 09/23/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 37 37 37 35 33 31 31 31 32 34 37 40 43 46 V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 37 37 37 35 33 31 31 31 32 34 37 40 43 46 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 35 34 33 31 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 7 9 10 10 15 15 16 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 210 211 202 191 189 185 185 186 178 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 27.2 27.4 27.4 27.4 28.0 27.7 28.0 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 135 137 138 137 143 140 143 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 61 61 58 53 52 48 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 6 3 2 3 -2 19 40 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 5 -2 -17 -16 -15 21 10 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 2 4 2 9 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 553 532 524 555 599 699 834 1011 1151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.4 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.3 18.7 17.7 17.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.9 111.6 112.3 113.2 114.1 115.6 117.0 118.4 119.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 8 7 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 3 4 5 11 25 9 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. 20. 21. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -3. 0. 3. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.0 110.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152022 NEWTON 09/23/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.51 3.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.61 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 208.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 -3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.84 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 14.4% 12.9% 11.3% 6.9% 11.2% 10.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 2.5% 1.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 5.6% 4.8% 4.1% 2.4% 3.9% 3.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152022 NEWTON 09/23/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##