* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTON EP152022 09/23/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 44 43 44 40 37 35 34 34 34 35 37 40 43 45 V (KT) LAND 45 44 44 44 43 44 40 37 35 34 34 34 35 37 40 43 45 V (KT) LGEM 45 43 42 40 39 38 36 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 8 10 12 12 17 16 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -1 0 0 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 182 204 196 195 197 191 209 193 198 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.1 27.1 28.0 27.6 27.3 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 134 134 134 143 139 136 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 58 58 59 56 54 52 50 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 9 8 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 10 6 5 0 -6 -5 25 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 9 2 -13 -9 -12 5 7 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 0 2 2 9 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 525 506 501 511 538 626 725 898 1073 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.2 19.5 19.9 19.7 18.7 17.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.5 111.3 112.0 112.9 113.7 115.3 116.7 118.0 119.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 8 7 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 2 3 3 5 28 9 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -5. -2. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.2 110.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152022 NEWTON 09/23/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.44 2.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.16 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.56 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 247.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 -2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.65 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 15.4% 13.1% 11.3% 6.7% 10.7% 9.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 3.9% 2.0% 1.3% 0.9% 1.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 6.5% 5.0% 4.2% 2.5% 3.9% 3.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152022 NEWTON 09/23/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##