* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTON EP152022 09/23/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 43 42 43 39 37 35 35 35 35 36 38 41 43 46 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 43 42 43 39 37 35 35 35 35 36 38 41 43 46 V (KT) LGEM 45 43 42 40 40 38 36 34 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 8 6 9 11 15 17 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -3 -1 0 2 6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 130 164 181 178 189 205 198 213 211 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.7 28.1 27.7 27.0 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 132 130 130 145 140 133 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 62 58 59 57 55 50 48 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 10 9 10 8 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 17 7 3 0 -3 -9 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 2 17 -4 -18 -20 4 1 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -3 -3 0 3 2 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 533 524 516 522 544 640 708 839 991 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.7 19.9 19.5 19.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.1 110.9 111.6 112.5 113.3 115.2 116.7 118.1 119.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 8 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 2 2 1 2 30 9 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -9. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -4. -2. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.0 110.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152022 NEWTON 09/23/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.43 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.61 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 2.9% 1.5% 0.9% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 5.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152022 NEWTON 09/23/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##