* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTON EP152022 09/22/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 48 48 48 46 44 39 36 35 34 34 35 37 40 44 46 V (KT) LAND 50 49 48 48 48 46 44 39 36 35 34 34 35 37 40 44 46 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 49 48 47 44 42 39 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 7 7 9 11 12 13 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 -2 -3 -3 -1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 134 136 146 176 200 209 198 197 214 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.5 27.7 28.1 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 135 133 131 128 140 144 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 61 60 58 57 53 49 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 31 27 22 19 3 3 -10 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -13 -9 -2 -6 -3 -11 -19 -6 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -1 1 0 3 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 417 467 519 512 503 522 615 698 778 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.0 18.1 18.4 18.6 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.7 109.4 110.0 110.8 111.5 113.1 114.6 116.1 117.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 7 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 5 4 2 1 1 22 19 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -10. -11. -9. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -15. -13. -10. -6. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 17.9 108.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152022 NEWTON 09/22/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.39 2.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.14 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.64 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 251.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 -3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.51 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 17.5% 15.0% 13.5% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 6.3% 5.3% 4.6% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152022 NEWTON 09/22/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##