* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTON EP152022 09/22/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 60 61 60 56 53 49 47 46 46 46 48 51 53 56 V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 60 61 60 56 53 49 47 46 46 46 48 51 53 56 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 62 63 63 61 56 52 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 6 7 7 8 11 11 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 0 -1 -4 0 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 104 124 133 142 179 197 194 179 197 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.6 27.0 28.3 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 135 135 133 129 133 146 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 61 60 60 61 58 56 50 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 10 10 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 29 34 31 23 13 6 -5 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -29 -19 0 0 -5 -3 -38 -10 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -3 0 0 2 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 371 422 474 523 520 515 569 703 764 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.9 19.3 19.2 19.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.1 108.8 109.5 110.2 110.9 112.5 113.9 115.5 116.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 6 5 4 2 1 7 28 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 440 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 1. -2. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. -4. -2. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.8 108.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152022 NEWTON 09/22/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.36 2.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.12 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.67 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 5.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 266.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.61 -3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.81 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.4% 20.9% 19.6% 18.8% 11.1% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.1% 7.9% 5.3% 3.6% 1.9% 1.6% 0.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.5% 9.7% 8.3% 7.5% 4.3% 5.7% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 9.0% 10.0% 9.0% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152022 NEWTON 09/22/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##