* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTON EP152022 09/22/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 57 57 56 53 47 41 37 35 34 33 33 34 37 40 43 V (KT) LAND 50 54 57 57 56 53 47 41 37 35 34 33 33 34 37 40 43 V (KT) LGEM 50 56 59 59 59 55 49 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 7 8 7 8 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 -2 0 -1 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 98 110 133 148 156 193 208 194 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 26.9 26.5 26.1 25.9 25.5 25.9 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 132 127 123 121 116 121 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 64 60 60 61 60 59 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 7 6 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 16 33 31 33 14 -6 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 -35 -12 2 9 -7 -19 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -1 1 0 -1 6 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 340 397 454 500 524 503 531 591 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.6 18.9 19.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.6 108.4 109.2 109.8 110.4 111.5 112.8 114.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 5 2 0 0 0 0 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 424 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 7. 6. 3. -3. -9. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -16. -13. -9. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 17.6 107.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152022 NEWTON 09/22/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.35 2.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.62 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 -3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 22.9% 20.6% 19.6% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.6% 12.9% 8.7% 7.0% 4.0% 2.5% 0.1% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.1% 12.0% 9.8% 8.9% 5.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152022 NEWTON 09/22/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##