* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTON EP152022 09/22/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 48 51 52 51 49 45 42 40 40 41 42 44 45 47 50 V (KT) LAND 40 45 48 51 52 51 49 45 42 40 40 41 42 44 45 47 50 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 50 52 53 51 47 42 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 9 9 8 9 6 8 7 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -2 -1 -1 0 -4 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 92 99 104 116 122 164 202 194 187 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 27.8 27.1 26.8 26.4 25.9 25.5 26.1 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 141 134 130 126 120 117 123 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 6 7 5 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 65 64 60 61 63 60 56 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 35 23 31 34 22 7 -7 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 16 -28 -24 -13 -11 -2 -18 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 0 1 0 3 2 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 269 305 350 407 465 512 499 540 561 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.1 18.1 18.3 18.7 19.0 19.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.6 107.3 108.0 108.7 109.4 110.3 111.7 113.1 114.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 6 5 7 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 10 6 4 1 0 0 0 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 375 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 11. 12. 11. 9. 5. 2. 0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.5 106.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152022 NEWTON 09/22/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.51 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.57 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 166.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 -3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.9% 21.4% 18.4% 17.2% 10.3% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.3% 13.8% 7.8% 5.5% 3.9% 2.8% 1.1% 2.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.4% 11.8% 8.8% 7.6% 4.8% 6.4% 0.4% 0.9% DTOPS: 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152022 NEWTON 09/22/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##