* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142022 09/20/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 33 30 28 25 20 18 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 36 33 30 28 25 20 18 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 36 32 28 26 22 19 17 16 16 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 22 18 17 17 9 7 3 3 1 6 7 6 14 17 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -2 0 -2 -2 0 -5 0 -2 -1 -6 -3 -2 -3 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 83 90 92 91 95 89 106 146 234 215 264 300 238 246 263 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 25.1 25.4 25.5 25.7 26.5 26.5 26.2 26.3 25.2 25.5 24.8 24.0 23.9 24.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 113 116 117 119 127 127 124 125 114 117 110 101 99 101 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -54.4 -54.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 67 63 60 60 56 53 50 44 41 38 30 26 23 23 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 17 15 15 15 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 53 57 50 39 46 45 46 45 50 41 17 2 -25 -32 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 -2 -9 14 19 46 -19 -1 13 5 -21 -40 -21 -11 -13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 2 3 4 1 6 2 2 1 3 1 1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 225 261 313 355 377 439 551 671 822 935 1025 1154 1305 1419 1492 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.5 21.7 21.8 21.8 21.8 21.5 21.4 21.4 21.3 21.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.0 111.8 112.5 113.2 113.8 115.1 116.6 118.0 119.5 121.0 122.3 123.9 125.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 5 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 8. 5. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -20. -22. -23. -25. -26. -27. -28. -29. -30. -28. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.1 111.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142022 MADELINE 09/20/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.32 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 149.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.72 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142022 MADELINE 09/20/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##