* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142022 09/19/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 47 45 40 33 27 25 22 20 18 18 18 20 21 24 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 47 45 40 33 27 25 22 20 18 18 18 20 21 24 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 47 46 44 37 31 26 22 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 22 21 20 23 23 20 7 8 8 12 16 16 15 18 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 -2 -2 -3 -1 0 -1 -2 -2 -5 -8 -3 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 85 85 87 85 84 96 100 105 67 109 158 168 190 202 200 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.0 26.2 25.2 25.5 26.3 27.0 26.7 26.7 26.2 25.6 26.1 25.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 140 132 124 113 117 125 133 129 129 124 118 123 119 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 -0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 81 78 72 68 66 62 60 55 52 45 37 34 29 25 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 19 18 16 13 12 11 9 8 6 6 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 77 79 83 76 58 63 34 38 28 31 38 44 27 21 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 70 76 68 66 57 14 -2 31 32 -27 -16 17 -28 -48 -22 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -3 0 0 0 1 4 3 5 1 3 2 2 1 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 252 291 349 302 269 262 336 420 513 626 747 882 998 1126 1259 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.5 19.9 20.2 20.5 21.0 21.2 21.4 21.4 21.3 21.1 20.9 20.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.6 108.3 109.0 109.7 110.3 111.5 112.7 114.1 115.7 117.1 118.4 119.8 121.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 9 8 4 0 0 0 0 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -7. -8. -11. -12. -15. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 0. -5. -12. -18. -20. -23. -25. -27. -27. -27. -25. -24. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.0 107.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142022 MADELINE 09/19/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.47 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142022 MADELINE 09/19/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##