* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142022 09/18/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 41 41 36 30 24 20 19 18 18 20 22 23 25 28 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 41 41 36 30 24 20 19 18 18 20 22 23 25 28 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 39 38 33 28 23 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 21 21 21 22 25 22 16 10 9 5 11 10 14 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -4 -3 -5 -2 1 0 -3 0 -2 -2 -2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 79 90 90 86 79 83 89 87 74 108 142 179 183 205 211 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 27.8 27.2 25.7 25.3 25.7 26.9 27.2 26.7 26.7 25.9 26.2 25.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 144 141 134 118 114 119 132 135 129 129 121 125 122 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 4 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 81 79 76 72 65 64 64 59 58 51 48 43 38 33 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 16 18 19 16 13 12 11 10 8 7 6 5 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 84 76 76 80 58 62 57 49 48 22 23 27 25 15 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 65 66 65 70 10 -19 19 44 -1 -15 1 7 -23 -51 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -4 -3 0 0 0 4 4 9 4 4 4 3 2 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 240 253 276 332 293 244 288 362 464 573 694 818 953 1086 1229 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.1 19.6 20.0 20.3 20.8 21.0 21.2 21.2 21.1 20.9 20.8 20.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.1 107.7 108.2 108.9 109.5 110.7 111.9 113.0 114.6 116.2 117.6 119.0 120.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 8 9 8 5 0 0 0 3 3 1 1 0 1 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 15. 15. 14. 13. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -0. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 1. -4. -10. -16. -20. -21. -22. -22. -20. -18. -17. -15. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.5 107.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142022 MADELINE 09/18/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.56 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142022 MADELINE 09/18/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##