* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142022 09/18/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 39 39 38 32 25 20 18 16 18 19 21 23 24 25 V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 39 39 38 32 25 20 18 16 18 19 21 23 24 25 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 38 37 34 29 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 20 19 18 17 21 26 23 13 14 6 3 4 11 8 12 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 -4 -3 0 -2 -2 3 -3 -1 3 0 -3 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 77 84 92 94 88 81 88 90 83 74 125 150 178 221 215 217 220 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.8 26.8 25.4 25.6 26.1 26.8 27.0 26.7 27.0 25.8 25.8 25.2 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 145 144 141 130 115 117 123 131 132 129 132 121 121 113 117 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -51.7 -52.3 -52.2 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 4 3 4 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 85 84 82 80 76 69 68 66 66 61 59 56 51 47 39 33 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 16 17 16 17 15 13 12 11 9 8 6 5 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 68 72 85 84 79 76 59 55 38 37 44 44 40 29 20 19 -2 200 MB DIV 59 48 62 60 62 45 -24 -14 40 26 -7 1 10 -22 -37 -3 -9 700-850 TADV -8 -8 -4 -2 0 2 4 2 2 5 3 4 1 3 1 2 2 LAND (KM) 225 226 227 267 304 233 247 319 397 459 565 686 801 970 1131 1259 1358 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.8 19.4 19.9 20.4 20.8 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.5 21.6 21.4 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.7 107.2 107.6 108.2 108.8 110.0 111.4 112.5 113.5 115.0 116.6 117.9 118.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 7 6 6 5 6 7 7 6 6 10 9 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 13 9 9 10 9 2 0 0 0 2 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. 13. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -9. -11. -11. -9. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -11. -13. -13. -15. -15. -15. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -8. -15. -20. -22. -24. -22. -21. -19. -17. -16. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.2 106.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142022 MADELINE 09/18/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.03 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 39.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.3% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.2% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142022 MADELINE 09/18/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##