* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142022 09/18/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 37 36 36 29 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 37 36 36 29 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 37 36 34 32 28 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 21 17 18 18 21 25 26 19 8 5 0 4 8 14 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 0 -3 -1 -3 -3 0 2 0 7 0 1 -2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 79 76 81 94 85 78 87 87 86 63 75 61 236 230 234 239 235 SST (C) 28.5 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.2 25.8 25.7 26.2 27.3 27.7 27.1 27.0 26.4 25.7 26.0 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 143 142 142 142 134 120 118 124 135 140 134 132 125 118 122 116 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.6 -0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 5 5 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 82 84 83 82 80 73 68 66 66 62 61 58 53 47 42 38 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 18 18 20 17 15 13 11 10 9 7 6 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 61 72 75 78 77 79 61 65 52 47 54 41 45 35 30 18 22 200 MB DIV 89 68 61 64 45 46 6 -28 27 11 15 -4 -5 1 -28 -27 -15 700-850 TADV -11 -8 -6 -2 -4 0 1 2 1 7 3 5 4 5 3 5 3 LAND (KM) 286 263 254 266 292 281 262 327 406 498 580 686 794 897 972 1054 1168 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 18.0 18.7 19.2 19.7 20.4 20.7 20.7 20.9 20.8 20.7 20.7 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.6 107.0 107.4 107.9 108.4 109.6 110.9 112.1 113.3 114.5 115.8 117.3 118.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 4 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 22 10 8 8 9 5 0 0 0 6 7 3 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 16. 17. 16. 16. 15. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -7. -11. -13. -13. -11. -9. -7. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -4. -7. -11. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -11. -20. -27. -30. -30. -29. -26. -24. -22. -20. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.3 106.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142022 MADELINE 09/18/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142022 MADELINE 09/18/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##