* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942022 09/17/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 38 39 39 38 34 28 23 20 20 20 23 28 32 35 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 38 39 39 38 34 28 23 20 20 20 23 28 32 35 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 36 35 33 31 27 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 37 33 27 24 21 25 23 21 21 18 13 13 8 6 1 2 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 0 -1 -1 -2 1 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -3 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 91 90 92 91 83 89 97 97 89 84 83 89 98 134 175 283 304 SST (C) 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.7 26.9 25.4 25.5 25.9 26.4 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.6 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 146 147 146 143 140 140 132 116 117 120 125 128 128 128 125 125 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.0 -52.1 -51.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 4 3 4 3 3 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 80 80 82 81 84 83 79 77 76 75 76 74 74 70 65 64 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 22 21 22 22 23 21 19 17 15 16 15 16 16 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 74 78 77 79 79 89 83 94 69 62 40 50 46 48 56 46 27 200 MB DIV 99 97 109 109 67 80 41 21 10 41 20 30 -14 11 -2 -7 -17 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -4 -10 -10 -3 0 2 -1 -2 2 4 1 3 2 2 2 LAND (KM) 453 413 374 340 314 283 329 289 247 326 381 424 475 597 744 809 795 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 7 6 5 5 6 6 5 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 11 15 18 17 13 7 7 3 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 20. 19. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -14. -17. -18. -18. -16. -14. -13. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -2. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -7. -12. -15. -15. -15. -12. -7. -3. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.5 106.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942022 INVEST 09/17/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.64 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.67 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 30.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942022 INVEST 09/17/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##