* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942022 09/17/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 35 37 38 40 37 34 30 31 31 35 39 44 48 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 35 37 38 40 37 34 30 31 31 35 39 44 48 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 28 27 27 25 23 21 18 17 16 16 18 20 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 33 36 35 34 27 19 20 18 19 19 14 5 8 7 8 2 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -8 -7 -2 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -2 -3 -4 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 87 87 91 94 98 72 88 92 98 87 95 86 55 109 136 65 14 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.5 27.8 27.3 27.3 26.3 25.3 25.7 26.4 26.9 26.9 26.6 26.7 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 143 145 147 141 136 135 125 115 119 126 131 131 127 127 131 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 81 82 81 81 82 84 82 80 77 78 78 74 72 66 60 60 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 20 20 20 23 23 24 22 21 20 20 19 22 23 25 25 850 MB ENV VOR 76 74 79 76 73 79 84 94 88 79 63 59 71 74 81 88 74 200 MB DIV 124 114 111 108 97 73 45 42 22 26 13 16 2 8 -10 22 -8 700-850 TADV 2 3 0 -1 -7 -9 -4 0 0 -1 0 1 0 1 1 2 2 LAND (KM) 503 474 446 403 359 306 312 366 301 280 347 415 469 557 680 752 801 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 5 5 7 7 7 6 7 7 6 5 6 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 11 15 19 11 5 6 1 0 0 1 3 2 1 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. 24. 24. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -5. -9. -13. -17. -19. -17. -15. -13. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 8. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 7. 4. 0. 1. 1. 5. 9. 14. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.9 106.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942022 INVEST 09/17/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.75 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 26.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942022 INVEST 09/17/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##