* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942022 09/17/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 46 49 52 53 51 48 42 37 36 39 41 44 47 49 V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 46 49 52 53 51 48 42 37 36 39 41 44 47 49 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 36 36 35 34 32 28 25 24 24 25 26 29 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 28 34 35 34 23 24 23 19 21 15 5 7 5 3 1 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -5 -9 -9 0 -2 -2 0 -3 -1 -1 -1 -4 -2 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 88 85 85 89 96 89 78 93 85 88 101 96 59 66 104 8 43 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 26.9 26.8 26.3 25.4 25.9 27.0 27.5 27.2 26.7 26.6 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 140 140 140 140 131 130 125 116 121 132 137 134 128 126 128 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 -52.4 -53.1 -52.1 -52.3 -51.7 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 80 79 80 80 81 84 83 79 77 77 75 74 74 71 65 61 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 20 22 22 23 23 23 23 22 20 19 20 21 22 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 71 76 69 76 77 68 76 75 86 72 68 64 71 67 57 57 50 200 MB DIV 105 126 129 112 102 92 85 44 28 -10 2 8 32 -25 2 -3 29 700-850 TADV 7 2 2 -2 -5 -10 -6 0 -1 0 0 1 3 2 2 2 2 LAND (KM) 534 530 526 495 458 384 369 389 400 370 386 480 520 580 652 720 773 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 0 3 5 5 6 7 6 6 7 7 6 5 6 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 9 8 8 9 2 2 1 0 0 5 6 3 1 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 23. 24. 24. 24. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -6. -11. -15. -19. -21. -19. -17. -14. -13. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 5. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 19. 22. 23. 21. 18. 12. 7. 6. 9. 11. 14. 17. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.7 106.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942022 INVEST 09/17/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.77 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 28.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 3.4% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.1% 0.4% DTOPS: 3.0% 20.0% 8.0% 4.0% 4.0% 5.0% 7.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942022 INVEST 09/17/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##