* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942022 09/16/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 28 30 34 39 45 46 48 43 39 36 37 38 37 40 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 28 30 34 39 45 46 48 43 39 36 37 38 37 40 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 23 23 21 18 16 16 15 15 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 29 29 27 28 31 24 19 14 19 19 16 10 8 9 8 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -3 -2 -3 -2 0 0 1 -1 -4 -6 -3 0 -1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 82 83 80 73 77 91 91 94 87 88 102 129 148 112 90 108 79 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.9 28.6 28.3 26.9 24.9 25.5 26.3 25.9 25.2 25.7 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 141 141 142 145 153 150 148 134 113 119 126 122 114 120 121 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -52.3 -52.7 -51.8 -52.2 -51.6 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 4 4 5 4 6 4 4 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 77 79 83 83 84 84 84 84 85 81 74 65 60 54 50 45 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 15 16 19 22 24 22 23 23 22 20 20 21 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 46 66 74 71 67 71 73 97 97 95 67 46 57 69 84 90 91 200 MB DIV 88 81 126 143 132 143 109 88 26 26 -3 -4 -3 -16 -4 13 7 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 -1 0 3 -1 -5 -2 -3 -2 -1 2 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 565 582 578 566 535 426 275 139 179 169 232 323 485 666 845 1012 1186 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.3 14.2 14.2 14.4 15.2 16.8 18.6 20.2 21.4 22.2 22.8 22.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.9 106.9 106.7 106.5 106.3 105.7 105.5 106.0 107.4 109.7 112.2 114.6 116.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 3 6 10 10 11 12 12 11 8 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 10 10 10 13 35 16 10 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):210/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 24. 27. 29. 30. 30. 31. 30. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -5. -10. -13. -16. -19. -19. -18. -16. -15. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 12. 14. 13. 11. 8. 8. 8. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 20. 21. 23. 19. 14. 11. 12. 13. 12. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 106.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942022 INVEST 09/16/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.76 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 18.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942022 INVEST 09/16/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##