* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942022 09/15/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 32 35 36 40 40 41 37 38 38 40 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 32 35 36 40 40 41 37 38 38 40 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 23 23 22 20 19 19 19 19 18 18 18 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 20 20 22 23 38 30 25 11 11 15 12 15 13 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -3 5 3 -2 3 0 0 -2 -2 2 3 SHEAR DIR 91 93 92 92 95 86 98 94 85 97 104 112 83 66 56 69 75 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 28.5 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.8 26.6 25.0 25.6 26.8 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 138 138 138 137 139 148 152 149 146 141 129 112 119 131 134 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 3 3 2 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 75 77 77 78 78 80 80 83 83 86 81 79 74 68 63 59 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 13 15 14 14 12 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 49 64 64 65 76 93 91 76 91 102 102 92 58 32 32 25 31 200 MB DIV 49 66 88 86 93 131 123 107 104 61 26 5 -7 -13 -8 -6 15 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 2 2 2 10 7 -11 0 3 5 3 -1 1 2 4 LAND (KM) 478 464 472 479 495 493 446 334 187 103 127 273 167 201 285 390 551 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.2 15.1 15.1 15.0 15.1 15.5 16.4 17.7 18.9 19.9 20.7 21.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.5 106.3 106.3 106.4 106.5 106.6 106.4 105.9 105.5 105.8 106.8 108.3 110.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 1 1 1 1 4 6 7 6 8 8 9 7 8 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 11 10 10 9 10 23 27 15 10 11 1 0 0 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. 33. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -9. -14. -17. -18. -17. -16. -15. -15. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 10. 11. 15. 15. 16. 12. 13. 13. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.2 106.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942022 INVEST 09/15/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.57 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 30.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.19 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942022 INVEST 09/15/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##