* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942022 09/15/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 36 42 46 48 48 50 49 47 47 47 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 36 42 46 48 48 50 49 47 47 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 23 23 23 24 24 25 26 26 26 26 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 16 19 19 18 19 31 28 20 16 13 15 14 14 13 12 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 1 0 0 1 -3 -2 -1 0 2 1 -1 -1 -1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 100 89 87 91 92 100 92 80 76 89 91 106 95 78 70 55 29 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.8 28.1 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.3 27.7 27.3 26.5 25.5 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 140 140 141 139 138 142 150 151 149 146 141 136 127 116 113 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -52.8 -53.2 -52.3 -53.0 -52.0 -52.2 -51.6 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 6 4 6 3 4 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 77 77 78 78 79 81 79 81 82 84 87 83 77 72 68 63 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 12 13 13 14 16 16 16 15 17 17 14 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 50 46 63 58 70 91 94 91 82 104 98 102 82 61 42 47 47 200 MB DIV 53 56 52 82 89 126 128 117 110 98 64 34 0 17 -15 -13 -13 700-850 TADV 3 2 3 2 3 5 3 -4 -8 -6 -3 0 0 -1 -2 -2 0 LAND (KM) 464 447 447 456 453 464 453 384 266 133 95 135 250 90 105 137 174 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.1 15.1 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.5 16.1 17.1 18.3 19.3 20.4 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.3 105.9 105.9 105.9 106.0 106.3 106.5 106.3 105.9 105.6 106.0 107.0 108.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 2 0 0 2 1 2 4 6 5 6 7 9 8 6 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 13 13 13 12 11 10 16 31 20 14 11 9 4 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 766 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. 35. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -6. -10. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 2. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 6. 5. 2. 1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 17. 21. 23. 23. 25. 24. 22. 22. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.2 106.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942022 INVEST 09/15/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 3.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.08 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 30.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.6% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.4% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942022 INVEST 09/15/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##