* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942022 09/15/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 32 37 44 47 49 47 48 48 48 47 49 53 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 32 37 44 47 49 47 48 48 48 47 49 53 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 24 25 27 27 25 24 23 22 22 23 24 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 16 16 18 18 21 23 31 24 22 14 16 9 11 9 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 1 1 0 -2 2 0 -1 -1 -1 -4 -2 -2 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 95 95 83 76 81 85 86 96 98 99 100 79 84 87 77 66 51 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 26.8 26.4 26.2 26.3 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 134 134 134 134 133 133 129 125 123 125 129 129 128 127 123 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 74 75 75 76 77 78 79 78 79 79 81 80 80 81 80 79 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 15 17 21 22 24 23 25 27 28 27 27 29 850 MB ENV VOR 46 51 57 63 67 74 77 108 102 99 92 87 72 68 60 83 88 200 MB DIV 87 44 35 52 79 94 128 88 65 73 24 27 0 20 1 30 25 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 2 3 0 -3 -5 -4 -5 -6 -3 -1 -3 0 LAND (KM) 514 508 512 522 527 544 553 529 501 486 509 507 527 510 481 425 366 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.4 15.3 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.3 15.9 16.6 17.5 18.1 18.4 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.5 107.4 107.3 107.3 107.4 107.7 108.0 108.4 108.7 109.2 109.9 110.8 111.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 4 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 1 0 1 3 3 2 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 27. 27. 27. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. -4. -9. -13. -16. -16. -16. -14. -13. -14. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 14. 17. 16. 18. 18. 18. 15. 14. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 19. 22. 24. 22. 23. 23. 23. 22. 24. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.4 107.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942022 INVEST 09/15/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 3.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.12 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.7% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.3% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942022 INVEST 09/15/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##