* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942022 09/14/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 36 39 44 52 54 57 55 54 52 54 52 52 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 36 39 44 52 54 57 55 54 52 54 52 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 28 29 30 30 31 32 32 31 30 28 29 29 30 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 16 15 17 14 24 21 31 30 23 24 17 18 19 23 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 0 2 0 -3 -4 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 94 97 96 99 92 79 86 89 98 99 97 91 74 82 86 84 76 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.2 26.9 27.1 27.1 26.6 26.2 26.3 26.9 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 134 136 136 138 136 135 133 130 132 132 128 124 125 131 138 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 74 74 75 76 76 78 79 79 79 80 82 87 84 81 78 72 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 13 14 15 15 19 21 23 23 24 25 29 27 26 850 MB ENV VOR 37 45 59 56 62 76 84 80 104 90 95 98 99 87 95 77 79 200 MB DIV 83 95 97 82 78 109 82 123 117 103 95 62 22 23 25 3 26 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 2 0 -2 -1 0 4 4 0 -2 -3 -2 -1 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 535 541 538 552 567 597 605 593 533 438 345 321 376 478 474 509 553 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.3 15.2 15.0 14.9 14.7 14.8 15.0 15.6 16.4 17.3 17.9 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.0 107.8 107.6 107.5 107.6 107.8 108.1 108.2 108.1 107.7 107.4 107.6 108.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 4 4 4 4 6 7 7 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 6 7 7 8 6 6 4 3 4 3 1 0 1 4 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):130/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. 28. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -8. -13. -16. -17. -17. -16. -16. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 12. 15. 17. 17. 16. 15. 18. 15. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 19. 27. 29. 32. 30. 29. 27. 29. 27. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.5 108.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942022 INVEST 09/14/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 3.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.62 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.18 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.07 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.9% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 1.7% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.3% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 3.9% 0.6% 0.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 10.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942022 INVEST 09/14/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##