* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942022 09/14/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 25 31 38 44 52 57 59 57 56 58 59 58 57 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 25 31 38 44 52 57 59 57 56 58 59 58 57 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 22 24 25 26 25 25 26 28 29 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 12 13 12 12 15 22 30 30 27 26 21 21 19 23 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 0 -1 -3 0 -3 -7 -4 0 -3 -2 -3 2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 88 100 109 102 90 81 67 84 81 87 87 81 95 95 80 79 68 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.2 28.4 28.7 27.9 26.8 26.1 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 130 133 134 139 139 137 138 140 135 147 149 142 132 124 124 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -53.3 -53.7 -53.1 -53.4 -52.6 -53.2 -52.2 -52.5 -51.7 -52.1 -51.3 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 72 72 72 73 73 75 76 75 77 78 83 86 88 88 84 82 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 11 11 15 16 16 19 21 23 22 23 26 27 29 28 850 MB ENV VOR 22 42 52 62 63 77 79 76 70 75 75 90 90 110 100 111 78 200 MB DIV 46 77 100 112 84 76 66 68 100 118 108 105 89 87 56 40 18 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 0 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 4 3 4 1 0 -5 -9 LAND (KM) 537 537 529 552 568 629 706 753 754 648 492 325 241 247 349 412 436 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.0 16.0 15.8 15.7 15.4 15.0 14.7 14.4 14.9 15.7 16.7 17.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.6 108.6 108.5 108.6 108.7 109.2 109.8 110.1 109.8 108.9 107.6 106.3 106.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 0 0 1 2 2 4 3 2 2 7 8 6 4 7 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 6 7 10 10 8 8 8 4 22 29 11 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 34. 36. 37. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -4. -9. -13. -14. -15. -14. -14. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 13. 17. 19. 16. 16. 17. 17. 17. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 18. 24. 32. 37. 39. 37. 36. 38. 39. 38. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 16.0 108.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942022 INVEST 09/14/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.61 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.05 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 2.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 1.4% 1.5% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942022 INVEST 09/14/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##