* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942022 09/14/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 24 29 35 40 45 47 48 50 49 50 51 54 53 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 24 29 35 40 45 47 48 50 49 50 51 54 53 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 24 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 12 13 12 13 16 22 22 36 28 25 21 15 14 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 0 -1 0 0 -1 -1 0 -2 -3 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 71 87 99 104 99 74 77 73 71 73 81 92 106 121 117 97 97 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.2 27.8 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.4 27.3 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 130 132 133 137 139 138 140 145 142 149 148 150 149 137 127 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 71 73 72 73 74 75 76 75 76 79 82 85 90 89 88 81 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 9 13 14 14 14 15 16 18 17 17 18 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 26 34 45 54 65 76 86 91 75 84 69 80 94 108 114 112 107 200 MB DIV 32 49 77 99 90 51 70 82 112 136 138 130 111 82 58 13 44 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 0 -1 -5 -3 -4 -4 -8 -3 2 3 5 -2 -4 LAND (KM) 537 530 530 544 560 599 676 731 752 697 534 290 112 23 54 223 347 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.2 16.2 16.0 15.8 15.5 14.9 14.5 14.0 14.0 14.7 16.1 17.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.7 108.7 108.7 108.7 108.7 108.9 109.3 109.6 109.3 108.4 106.7 104.8 103.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 0 1 2 2 3 3 2 3 7 10 11 6 7 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 5 6 8 9 8 8 9 8 16 15 14 12 7 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 34. 35. 37. 38. 40. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -4. -9. -13. -15. -15. -13. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. -0. 2. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 8. 8. 8. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 27. 28. 30. 29. 30. 31. 34. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 16.1 108.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942022 INVEST 09/14/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 1.0% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942022 INVEST 09/14/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##