* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942022 09/14/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 25 31 39 46 54 59 61 59 56 54 51 52 52 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 25 31 39 46 54 59 61 59 56 54 51 52 52 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 21 23 24 26 28 29 28 27 26 26 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 15 14 12 12 14 17 22 31 34 28 24 23 25 20 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 -3 -1 0 -1 1 0 -3 -7 -2 -2 -3 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 68 67 83 91 97 72 74 76 92 87 94 96 90 85 95 103 114 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.0 27.0 27.6 27.6 27.3 26.8 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 132 133 134 135 137 137 137 137 132 133 138 138 136 131 120 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.8 -53.1 -53.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.3 -53.0 -52.1 -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 6 7 3 3 700-500 MB RH 72 71 72 71 72 74 75 76 76 76 78 80 84 86 83 80 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 13 17 18 20 22 24 25 25 24 23 25 25 850 MB ENV VOR 21 24 32 45 54 68 80 80 81 86 91 93 103 97 106 73 85 200 MB DIV 29 29 53 85 104 98 72 77 103 111 118 105 82 52 28 32 26 700-850 TADV 2 0 1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 1 3 0 3 2 -1 1 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 552 561 561 560 568 591 630 662 663 627 504 347 214 151 203 241 138 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.1 16.1 16.0 15.9 15.5 15.2 14.9 14.8 14.9 15.7 16.9 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.8 109.0 109.0 108.9 108.9 108.8 109.0 109.1 109.0 108.6 107.8 107.0 106.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 4 6 8 6 6 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 8 7 3 5 11 8 6 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -2. -6. -11. -14. -15. -15. -16. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 20. 20. 17. 15. 13. 13. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 19. 26. 34. 39. 41. 39. 36. 34. 31. 32. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 16.0 108.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942022 INVEST 09/14/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 1.2% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942022 INVEST 09/14/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##