* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942022 09/13/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 21 23 27 36 44 51 57 62 60 57 53 50 48 48 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 21 23 27 36 44 51 57 62 60 57 53 50 48 48 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 18 17 17 17 18 20 21 22 24 25 24 23 22 21 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 9 11 11 12 12 12 18 23 21 26 28 26 19 21 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -1 0 -2 0 2 2 -1 3 -1 -4 -2 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 83 78 74 86 105 95 69 56 81 91 94 97 116 118 115 114 100 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.4 26.8 26.3 26.4 26.2 26.2 25.8 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 129 127 129 131 135 136 137 134 129 125 126 124 123 119 118 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 5 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 75 75 74 75 74 75 73 79 78 79 80 82 79 81 78 75 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 10 11 12 16 17 18 20 23 23 24 23 23 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR 25 29 29 38 47 74 78 77 83 79 106 105 120 106 102 106 100 200 MB DIV 52 35 50 48 71 112 82 94 81 121 103 92 49 26 22 23 -6 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 1 1 0 -1 -4 -2 -2 0 1 2 3 0 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 529 521 522 522 522 537 583 630 623 585 499 417 357 370 344 325 314 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.2 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.0 15.6 15.2 15.2 15.4 16.1 17.1 18.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.5 108.6 108.7 108.7 108.7 108.6 108.8 109.0 108.9 108.6 108.2 108.1 108.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 1 0 1 2 2 1 2 2 5 5 6 5 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 4 4 4 5 7 9 8 6 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 31. 31. 31. 31. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 6. 9. 11. 14. 18. 16. 16. 14. 13. 11. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 16. 24. 31. 37. 42. 40. 37. 33. 30. 28. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 16.0 108.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942022 INVEST 09/13/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.01 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 1.2% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942022 INVEST 09/13/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##