* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942022 09/12/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 33 38 43 47 50 51 52 52 52 52 54 56 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 33 38 43 47 50 51 52 52 47 47 48 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 13 14 12 14 16 15 20 25 29 18 13 8 10 4 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -5 -5 -1 -2 -3 0 2 4 1 4 0 0 5 5 SHEAR DIR 62 77 80 90 103 70 84 81 99 78 71 91 61 46 49 158 207 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.4 28.1 28.4 28.8 29.5 28.7 28.8 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 133 135 135 135 136 138 141 146 144 148 153 161 153 155 141 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 7 6 7 4 3 700-500 MB RH 77 76 75 76 76 77 75 78 79 81 81 85 83 79 73 72 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 21 21 27 31 45 49 60 65 62 73 82 98 119 74 76 56 200 MB DIV 33 47 55 53 65 69 74 122 160 187 145 149 60 67 0 -6 26 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 4 3 -6 -11 -3 -4 -9 -12 1 LAND (KM) 477 501 514 537 544 552 553 566 572 556 422 232 44 20 150 46 -11 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.9 16.0 15.9 15.9 15.8 15.7 15.3 14.9 14.6 15.3 16.8 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.5 108.0 108.3 108.5 108.6 108.6 108.5 108.2 107.7 106.9 105.8 104.9 104.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 2 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 8 9 10 12 14 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 9 11 11 22 16 23 14 13 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 32. 34. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. 0. -3. -6. -10. -11. -10. -8. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 26. 27. 27. 27. 27. 29. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.8 107.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942022 INVEST 09/12/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 3.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.28 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.32 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 45.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.2% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 9.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 1.0% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 3.2% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 3.1% 3.5% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942022 INVEST 09/12/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##