* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942022 07/02/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 26 23 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 26 23 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 14 13 12 12 12 12 16 22 26 33 43 48 43 39 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -3 -3 -5 -4 -8 -1 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 195 205 212 218 217 228 215 221 202 204 207 209 213 223 224 218 210 SST (C) 26.4 26.3 25.4 24.6 24.4 23.5 22.8 22.6 22.1 22.2 22.2 22.0 21.5 21.2 21.0 20.9 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 118 110 108 98 90 87 81 81 81 79 75 72 68 66 70 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 -55.1 -55.2 -55.3 -55.2 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 61 60 60 61 58 51 44 40 36 33 29 26 22 21 18 16 15 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 7 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -11 -15 -7 -10 -24 -30 -42 -44 -51 -63 -63 -72 -94 -95 -81 -57 200 MB DIV 26 39 40 31 19 -12 -12 -9 1 -4 -1 -13 6 -1 -14 -10 7 700-850 TADV 4 2 0 4 5 6 9 9 8 6 2 1 -4 -4 -8 -6 -3 LAND (KM) 1513 1595 1670 1729 1788 1915 2035 2112 1965 1885 1862 1883 1948 1805 1692 1677 1777 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.0 16.5 16.9 17.4 18.4 19.3 20.0 20.8 21.5 22.3 23.1 24.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.1 124.4 125.7 127.0 128.3 130.7 132.7 134.6 136.0 136.8 137.1 137.0 136.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 11 10 9 7 4 4 5 6 6 3 2 7 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 11. 6. 2. -3. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. -0. -4. -7. -11. -15. -21. -26. -34. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -10. -15. -20. -24. -29. -36. -45. -54. -67. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.7 123.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942022 INVEST 07/02/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.49 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 150.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 3.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942022 INVEST 07/02/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##