* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942022 07/01/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 23 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 23 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 21 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 11 12 10 12 12 13 12 19 23 25 32 29 27 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -5 -2 1 -2 -2 -1 1 0 -4 -2 -4 0 1 2 -4 SHEAR DIR 177 194 205 223 223 205 219 236 213 199 211 210 218 230 225 214 176 SST (C) 26.6 25.8 25.7 25.7 24.1 23.9 22.8 22.6 22.3 21.6 21.1 20.7 20.4 20.2 20.3 20.6 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 131 122 122 122 105 102 90 87 83 75 70 67 63 59 60 67 74 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.4 -54.3 -54.7 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 61 61 59 59 59 53 46 41 36 30 25 22 20 17 15 13 13 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -25 -24 -23 -16 -26 -34 -43 -56 -62 -68 -72 -84 -92 -80 -69 -38 200 MB DIV 7 17 15 18 18 -1 -15 0 -23 -12 -21 -26 -22 -16 -11 -14 5 700-850 TADV 6 5 3 2 8 7 10 12 8 3 0 -4 -9 -8 -7 -5 0 LAND (KM) 1358 1413 1478 1554 1606 1701 1807 1909 1929 1877 1783 1648 1528 1465 1486 1603 1826 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.7 19.7 20.6 21.5 22.4 23.2 24.0 24.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.0 122.2 123.5 124.8 126.1 128.4 130.4 132.1 133.2 133.6 133.2 132.2 130.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 12 10 8 6 4 6 7 6 2 2 8 12 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 12. 10. 5. -1. -6. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -11. -16. -21. -27. -32. -39. -45. -52. -61. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.7 121.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942022 INVEST 07/01/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.50 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.76 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 3.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942022 INVEST 07/01/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##